"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not know how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off as well. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put the same amount on the next game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. suncity nhà cái should be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone lets you know that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux so you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a superb replacement for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the fact that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, once you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."